New Hope (000876): All sections go hand in hand in China Tyson
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019 and achieved a total operating income of 569.
17 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
01%; net profit attributable to mother 30.
71 ppm, an increase of 111 in ten years.
73%; net profit after deduction to non-mother 32.
420,000 yuan, an increase of 98 in ten years.
29%; period expense ratio accounts for 6.
13%, increasing by 0 every year.
27 units; operating cash flow 21.
6.4 billion, an increase of 5 every year.
The performance was in line with expectations, and the sections went hand in hand.
The company’s agriculture and animal husbandry is still dominated by the poultry industry. The detailed breakdown data is as follows: the company’s feed plate sales are about 1400 tons, of which 11% increase, of which 950 microns of poultry meat increased 18%, pig feed 290 decreased 7%, aquatic feed 94It has increased by 10% in more than ten years; 2.37 million heads of pigs have been slaughtered in the pig breeding sector, a long-term growth of 31%;
700 million birds, commercial chicken and duck 2.
400 million birds, about 133 poultry slaughter, about 5.
400 million feathers; in the food sector, 1.24 million pigs were slaughtered, 17 continued to decline by 20%, and meat products increased by 14%, an increase of 35%.
The rapid increase in pig production capacity is expected to continue to lead the industry.
The company’s production line has seen rapid growth in biological assets, with a growth rate of 90 in ten years.
27%, an increase of 66.
There are currently approximately 220,000 breeding pigs, of which 6 are ancestors.
20,000 heads, 160,000 parental pigs, a multiple of growth compared to the earlier 30,000 breeding pigs.
In the third and third quarters alone, the company ‘s hog breeding sector contributed approximately 3 profits.
600 million, which translates to a company’s current full cost of about 15.
6 yuan / kg.
In the future, through the company’s ability to breed sows, we will increase the production capacity, reduce the number of piglets purchased, and reduce the total cost.
The transition of the food sector to the army system is just in time.
The company’s sales of meat products and expected vegetable products in the first three quarters reached 14 inches, an increase of 35% per year, and sales of 6 inches in a single quarter, a 75% increase from the interim report, entered a rapid growth channel.
Judging from the development of the United States, the main value of the pork industry chain is captured by the terminal, and the income of the breeding end and the wholesale section has not increased and the cycle has fluctuated.
The company internally establishes consumer thinking, continuously increases the direct sales ratio of products, and optimizes the product structure. The embryonic industry from feed to food has begun to emerge, and it is expected to grow into a Chinese “Tyson” that crosses the cycle.
Profit forecast and investment advice.
In view of the better-than-expected development of the poultry industry chain,四川耍耍网 we raised the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to 45–20 in 2019-2021.
900 million (was 4).
US $ 6.1 billion), based on the valuation of comparable agricultural and animal husbandry companies, plus the expected value of Minsheng Bank, the price range is increased to 19.76?
5 yuan, the estimated upper limit corresponding to the PE in the next 3 years is 23X / 21X / 17X, maintaining the overweight level.
The release of production capacity was less than expected risk, and the company could not complete the scheduled expansion; the risk of large fluctuations in commodity prices, the company’s gross profit margin fell; food safety risks.